The Two Counties
Just Traded Places.

From the Market Pulse newsletter, sent to Nico's list on October 6, 2026. Data reflects August 2026 closed activity. Join the list to get each edition in your inbox.

Here's what actually happened in August, and what it means if you're watching this market.

The Number That Mattered

Last month I told you Sarasota prices were up 5% while Manatee barely moved. August flipped the script completely. Manatee's median single family price jumped 5.9% to $495,000. Sarasota's fell 1.1% to $470,000.

One month is not a trend. But a $25,000 gap opening between the counties in the other direction? That is worth watching.

Sarasota County

Median single family price: $470,000, down 1.1%
Median days to contract: 47, down from 69 a year ago
Months of supply: 3.7

Plain English: Sarasota got cheaper AND faster. Homes priced to today's market are going under contract a full three weeks quicker than last year. Inventory is down 20.8% in twelve months to 2,619 active listings. Sellers who price right are winning; sellers chasing last year's number are sitting.

Manatee County

Median single family price: $495,000, up 5.9%
Median days to contract: 45
Months of supply: 3.9

What's different: Manatee is now the more expensive county by $25,000 and it is still selling faster than Sarasota. Closed sales were up 5.7% while new listings fell 3.7%. More buyers, fewer fresh homes. That is how prices climb.

And watch the condos. Condo sales jumped 13.8% in Sarasota and 20.5% in Manatee, with supply tightening fast in both counties. The condo market spent two years as the balanced, take-your-time option. That window is narrowing.

New Construction Watch

Rates are the story here. The 30-year fixed hit 7.28% this week, up from the mid 6s all summer. When rates spike, builder rate buydowns become the most valuable incentive on the table, worth more in monthly payment terms than most price cuts. If a builder offers you a choice between $20K off price and a bought-down rate, run both numbers before you answer. I do this math for buyers every week.

Also new this week: I published a full guide to the Venice and Nokomis corridor, where 10 of the 14 actively selling communities carry no CDD fee at all. If the fees in the master-planned communities have been holding you back, that guide is for you.

What It Means

If you are buying: the rate spike stings, but it also thins out your competition, and sellers know it. Tight supply says do not expect prices to crack; 7%+ rates say negotiate everything else: credits, buydowns, repairs. Builders with standing inventory are the most motivated people in this market.

If you are selling: Sarasota's numbers are your warning label. Homes are moving in 47 days, but the median slipped, which means buyers are paying for value, not for optimism. Price to August's number, not April's.

Snowbird season is four to six weeks out. Inventory is building toward it in both counties. The next two Pulses will show whether that seasonal supply meets enough demand to hold prices.

Want to know what this means for your specific situation? Reach out. It comes straight to me.

Nico
(571) 524-3613

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